Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships are barely crossing the Strait of Hormuz today, with daily transit calls having collapsed by more than 95% since the Iran war began in early 2026. IMF PortWatch data confirms traffic has plummeted since March, reduced from pre-war averages of 75–125 vessels to near-zero levels, driven by attacks on commercial ships and ongoing regional conflict. This market’s 46% YES probability reflects uncertainty about whether any single day will see a finalized count reach the listed threshold before July 31, 2026, despite the strait’s critical role in global energy transport.

Historically, chokepoints like Hormuz have seen temporary surges when geopolitical tensions ease or alternative routes close, but current conditions show sustained GPS jamming, AIS spoofing, and vessels going dark. Reddit discussions and Statista charts highlight that vessel traffic has virtually stopped since March, with no signs of recovery even if peace prevails, suggesting growth will remain slower. Traders should watch for announcements on de-escalation talks, scheduled naval patrols, or dependencies like USDC withdrawal rails and SEPA deposit fees that could influence funding flows into this book. Recent LinkedIn posts note the future of transits remains uncertain, with growth likely to lag even in peaceful scenarios.

The market’s traction ties directly to payment friction: depositing via Klarna, withdrawing through USDC, and SEPA rails determine how deeply traders can fund positions. If deposit fees rise or withdrawal rails slow, book depth shrinks, reducing the chance of a YES outcome. Conversely, smoother funding flows could push daily counts higher, though current data suggests this is unlikely. Monitor IMF PortWatch updates for finalized daily numbers, as only data points available after the next day’s release count. The settlement window ends 23:59 UTC on July 31, 2026, with no room for late adjustments.

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Methodology

This page compares Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.