How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships are moving through the Strait of Hormuz again after Iran largely blocked the choke point following the US–Israel air war in February 2026. The market tracks verified transit calls reported by IMF Portwatch for the week of 6–12 July 2026, covering container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo and tanker vessels. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 82% YES, reflecting confidence that traffic will meet the settlement threshold despite recent volatility.

Historical patterns show uneven recovery: Kpler recorded 108 verified crossings over the weekend of 3–5 July, with 43 on 3 July, 34 on 4 July and 31 on 5 July, yet daily counts have fluctuated sharply since the blockade ended [3]. Earlier in June, MarineTraffic logged just 29 crossings over five days amid crude, refined products and LPG traffic, while by late June outbound commercial movement had stalled completely for 72 hours [1][2]. This volatility frames the 82% probability as a bet on resilience rather than stability, with depth in the book tied to funding flows that clear payment friction via Klarna, SEPA and USDC on-ramps.

Traders should watch Iran’s stance on future strait fees, which the US rejects, and any IRGC missile activity against commercial ships, as both directly impact transit volumes [3]. The US–Iran memorandum of understanding signed in early July officially resumed traffic, but daily counts remain sensitive to geopolitical friction and mine-clearing progress [9]. With settlement data finalised once the next day’s point is available, traders must monitor Kpler and IMF Portwatch updates closely, as delays in finalisation could affect resolution timing and liquidity depth.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 6? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.