"Young Washington" Opening Weekend Box Office

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the domestic opening weekend gross of Angel Studios’ historical drama *Young Washington*, which premiered on 2,700 screens for the 3-day period from 3 to 5 July 2026. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for any specific bracket, reflecting extreme uncertainty as final figures are not yet confirmed beyond studio estimates. The settlement window closes on 6 July 2026, once the 3-day total is finalised using data from The Numbers.

Historical comparables suggest a volatile opening pattern for indie historical films released over Fourth of July weekends. *Supergirl*, released in a similar slot, collapsed 76% in its second weekend and lost to a George Washington-themed film, indicating that audience retention for such titles can be fragile [1]. Conversely, *Young Washington* has been forecast by Box Office Theory to gross between $23 million and higher, with studio tracking suggesting up to $95 million for a 5-day window, though early IMDb data shows a domestic gross of $7.59 million as of 3 July [3][4]. This divergence between early figures and forecasts frames the current 0% probability as a market awaiting final verification.

Traders should monitor the release of finalised 3-day box office figures from The Numbers, expected within hours of the settlement deadline. Key dependencies include whether the film’s performance aligns with Angel Studios’ prior track record or suffers the typical indie historical dip seen in *Supergirl* [1]. Recent coverage from Deadline notes the film’s wide release and PG-13 rating as potential traction drivers, though no major announcements have altered the outlook since opening [5]. The market’s depth will likely hinge on whether funding flows from payment rails like Klarna and SEPA support sustained betting activity as final data emerges.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares "Young Washington" Opening Weekend Box Office with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).