Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
42% | 58% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
42% | 58% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| CJ Abrams | 42% |
| Pete Alonso | 29% |
| Yordan Alvarez | 27% |
| Junior Caminero | 22% |
| Kyle Schwarber | 9% |
| Andy Pages | 3% |
| Riley Greene | 2% |
| Liam Hicks | 2% |
| Brandon Lowe | 2% |
| Cal Raleigh | 1% |
| Aaron Judge | 1% |
| Rafael Devers | 1% |
| Juan Soto | 1% |
| Taylor Ward | 1% |
| James Wood | 1% |
| Sal Stewart | 1% |
| Drake Baldwin | 1% |
| Eugenio Suárez | 0% |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | 0% |
| Christian Yelich | 0% |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0% |
| Bo Bichette | 0% |
| Nico Hoerner | 0% |
| Oneil Cruz | 0% |
| Jorge Soler | 0% |
| Player A | 0% |
| Player B | 0% |
| Player C | 0% |
| Player D | 0% |
| Player E | 0% |
| Player F | 0% |
| Player G | 0% |
| Player H | 0% |
| Player I | 0% |
| Player J | 0% |
| Player K | 0% |
| Player L | 0% |
| Player M | 0% |
| Player N | 0% |
| Player O | 0% |
| Player P | 0% |
| Player Q | 0% |
| Player R | 0% |
| Player S | 0% |
| Player T | 0% |
| Player U | 0% |
| Player V | 0% |
| Player W | 0% |
| Player X | 0% |
| Player Y | 0% |
| Player Z | 0% |
| Player AA | 0% |
| Player AB | 0% |
| Player AC | 0% |
| Player AD | 0% |
| Player AE | 0% |
| Player AF | 0% |
| Player AG | 0% |
| Player AH | 0% |
| Player AI | 0% |
| Player AJ | 0% |
| Player AK | 0% |
| Player AL | 0% |
| Player AM | 0% |
| Player AN | 0% |
| Player AO | 0% |
| Player AP | 0% |
| Player AQ | 0% |
| Player AR | 0% |
| Player AS | 0% |
| Other | 0% |
Market context
The market bets on which player will accumulate the most runs batted in during the 2026 MLB regular season, with tie-breakers favouring home runs, then batting average. Jordan Walker currently leads the 2026 season with 75 RBIs, giving him the strongest on-field position as the season reaches its midpoint [1]. Andrés Chaparro recorded eight RBIs yesterday, showing the volatility of daily performance that can shift leaderboard standings rapidly [2].
Historically, mid-season RBI leaders often retain the title if they maintain consistent playing time and avoid injury, though late-season surges by power hitters frequently overturn early leads. Freddie Freeman, the active career RBI leader with 1,373, exemplifies the durability required to dominate this category over a full season [3]. The current 9% implied probability suggests the crowd views Walker’s lead as fragile, likely anticipating a strong finish from established power hitters who have historically outperformed mid-season frontrunners.
Traders should monitor MLB injury reports and lineup announcements, as a single missed game can alter RBI accumulation significantly. Key catalysts include the return of injured stars and the scheduling of double-headers in late August, which often accelerate RBI totals. Recent coverage highlights how late-season roster moves and pitcher rotations directly impact offensive output, making these dependencies critical for assessing the market’s trajectory [1]. Funding flows into this market will likely surge when major lineup changes are announced, deepening book liquidity around emerging contenders.
Methodology
This page compares MLB: RBIs Leader with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
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