MLB: Highest ABS Challenge Success Rate (Team)

Platform comparison

Market context

The 2026 MLB Regular Season will determine which team records the highest percentage of successful automated ball-strike (ABS) challenges, with a tie-breaker favouring the team with more total wins, then alphabetical order. This market currently implies a 36% chance that the outcome will be a "YES" for the designated team, reflecting early uncertainty as the system enters its first full season of operation.

Historical data from the system’s debut in Opening Week and the first three weeks of play shows a 54% overall overturn rate, with nine clubs exceeding a 60% success rate; the Reds led at 72%, while the Braves lagged at 39% [1]. Spring training data indicated catchers were most successful, overturning 64% of challenges, suggesting positional strategy heavily influences team outcomes [4]. These early figures frame the current 36% probability as plausible but volatile, given that team performance has not yet stabilised over a full season.

Traders should monitor weekly ABS challenge trackers for shifts in team success rates, particularly as player adaptation evolves through the season [9]. Key catalysts include announcements from T-Mobile, the system’s sponsor, regarding any technical adjustments, and updates from MLB on challenge frequency trends [3]. Recent reports confirm the system is fully operational across all ballparks, with challenge rates defined as bad outcome non-swings with challenges remaining [5]. As deposit and withdrawal rails like Klarna and SEPA drive book depth, funding flows will likely intensify around these data releases, amplifying market traction.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares MLB: Highest ABS Challenge Success Rate (Team) with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).