Internet Access restored in Iran by 2026?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Iran's internet infrastructure has been severed since 28 February 2026 following military escalation involving the United States and Israel. The blackout represents one of the most comprehensive connectivity shutdowns in the country's history, affecting both fixed-line and mobile networks. Resolution hinges on whether credible international reporting—from news agencies, internet monitoring organisations, or telecommunications bodies—confirms restoration of general public internet access by 30 April 2026.

Historical precedent suggests extended outages in conflict zones rarely resolve within two-month windows. During Syria's civil war, regional connectivity disruptions lasted months to years depending on territorial control. The 2019 Iraq protests saw internet restrictions lifted within weeks once political pressure mounted, whilst Myanmar's 2021 military coup resulted in partial, fragmented restoration over several months. Iran's previous blackouts in 2019 lasted approximately one week; however, the current geopolitical context—active military engagement rather than domestic unrest—presents a materially different constraint on restoration timelines.

Traders should monitor ceasefire announcements, diplomatic statements from UN bodies, and real-time data from Cloudflare, Akamai, or the Internet Society's monitoring dashboards. Any formal agreement between Iran and Western powers would likely precede technical restoration by days to weeks. The crowd's 0% probability reflects the compressed settlement window and absence of near-term de-escalation signals as of early March 2026. Funding depth on this market depends on sustained trader conviction; SEPA deposits and Klarna payment rails enable rapid position entry for European participants tracking geopolitical risk.

Methodology

We track Internet Access restored in Iran by 2026? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.