Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remains the world's most critical oil chokepoint, with roughly one-third of seaborne petroleum passing through its 21-nautical-mile width daily. This market settles if IMF Portwatch records a single day where transit arrivals meet or exceed a specified threshold between now and 31 May 2026. The threshold itself determines the probability; higher daily arrival counts are rarer, which explains the 17% implied likelihood—the crowd is pricing in either a significant disruption event or an unusually quiet transit period.

Historical transit data shows daily arrivals typically range between 15 and 25 vessels, with occasional spikes to 30+ during seasonal demand peaks or when vessels queue ahead of scheduled maintenance windows at key Persian Gulf terminals. The 2022 Houthi attacks on shipping and the 2019 tanker incidents both produced measurable but temporary reductions in transit flow rather than complete blockages. Current geopolitical tensions in the region remain elevated, though no formal closure has occurred since the 1980s Iran–Iraq War. The low probability reflects how difficult it is to hit extreme daily arrival figures—not the likelihood of disruption itself.

Traders should monitor announcements from Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps regarding exercises or blockade threats, OPEC production decisions affecting export volumes, and scheduled port maintenance in the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Recent reporting from Reuters and Bloomberg Oil indicates seasonal maintenance windows typically occur in Q2, which could artificially suppress or elevate transit numbers. Deposit friction matters here: markets with deeper liquidity on prediction platforms accepting SEPA transfers and Klarna payment rails tend to tighten spreads on geopolitical events, allowing traders to enter or exit positions without slippage when news breaks.

Methodology

We track Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Klarna UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.