US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world starting point is the June agreement between the United States and Iran, which created a 60-day negotiating runway rather than a completed nuclear settlement. Reuters and AP both described it as an initial pact or memorandum that opened talks on enrichment limits, sanctions relief and inspections, but still left the final text to be worked out later.[7][16]

That framing matters because markets on Iran diplomacy have often over-read early process milestones. In February and June 2026, Reuters, Axios and Al Jazeera all reported “progress”, “guiding principles” and draft exchanges, yet the talks still needed technical working groups and follow-on meetings before any document could be treated as final.[5][9][12] For a 0% implied probability, the book is likely reflecting the usual gap between a roadmap and a signed instrument, especially once contentious items such as uranium stockpiles, IAEA access and sanctions relief are pushed into later rounds.[14][15]

For traders, the main catalysts are formalities rather than rhetoric: any signed text, a public adoption by both sides, or a confirmed meeting that produces a written instrument before the deadline. Reuters said a signing ceremony was being discussed in Europe, and later reports pointed to technical talks in Switzerland with working groups on sanctions, nuclear affairs and implementation, which are the sort of updates that can move odds quickly if they turn into an actual signature rather than another framework statement.[7][15][17] On the funding side, this sort of event-driven market usually needs cheap, fast top-ups; Klarna, SEPA and USDC deposits can bring in different trader types, and withdrawal friction tends to matter for whether depth stays in the book after the first burst of interest.

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Methodology

This page compares US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

Can UK traders use Klarna to deposit on Polymarket?

Polymarket does not natively accept Klarna. To fund a Polymarket account from the UK, you must first purchase USDC via a crypto exchange (Coinbase UK, Kraken) or Revolut, then transfer to a Polygon-compatible wallet. Some third-party on-ramps (MoonPay, Transak) accept UK debit cards and may support Klarna buy-now-pay-later for crypto purchases.

What payment methods can UK users use for Polymarket?

UK traders typically use: (1) Coinbase UK or Kraken — buy USDC with GBP debit card or bank transfer; (2) Revolut — buy crypto and send to wallet; (3) MoonPay or Transak — Visa/Mastercard UK debit card directly to USDC on Polygon. Standard GBP-to-USDC conversion fees range from 0.5–2.5%.

How long do Polymarket withdrawals take for UK users?

Polymarket withdrawals to your Polygon wallet are instant (on-chain). Converting USDC back to GBP via Coinbase UK or Kraken typically takes 1–3 business days for bank transfer, or near-instant for Revolut. Polygon gas fees are minimal (<$0.01 per transaction).