Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz, a 54-kilometre chokepoint between Iran and Oman, handles roughly one-third of global seaborne oil trade. Warship transits through these waters remain rare outside routine US Navy operations and occasional allied passages, making the 4% probability a reflection of baseline geopolitical friction rather than imminent escalation. The market asks whether any country's naval vessels will pass through between now and end-July 2026—a narrow window that excludes the US Navy's established Freedom of Navigation operations, which occur regularly but fall outside the market's scope.

Historical precedent suggests low transit frequency among non-US actors. The last significant non-American warship transit involved French and British vessels in 2019, prompted by the Tanker War tensions. Chinese naval activity in the region remains limited to the Gulf of Aden and Arabian Sea; Indian Navy operations focus on the Indian Ocean proper. Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps naval exercises occasionally occur within Iranian territorial waters but do not constitute Strait transits. The 4% odds reflect this sparse historical record and the absence of announced military deployments by other nations into the region.

Traders should monitor announcements from regional navies, particularly India's Eastern Fleet or any European task force redeployments following Middle East tensions. Recent reporting from Reuters and Jane's Defence Weekly tracks naval movements; formal transit notifications through the International Maritime Organization provide settlement evidence. Deposit friction via Klarna or SEPA transfers remains minimal on polymarket-klarna.co.uk, allowing traders to build positions without withdrawal delays when catalysts emerge.

Methodology

This page compares Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).