What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?

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Market context

The question hinges on whether the Trump administration will accept Iran's continued uranium enrichment as part of any diplomatic settlement by May 2026. This differs materially from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which permitted enrichment only under strict caps and International Atomic Energy Agency monitoring. Trump withdrew from that agreement in 2018, imposing maximum pressure sanctions. Any new accord recognising Iran's right to enrich—even with verification measures in place—would represent a significant reversal of his prior stance, though not necessarily a capitulation on other demands around ballistic missiles, regional proxy activity, or sanctions relief sequencing.

Historical precedent suggests such reversals are rare but not unprecedented. The Reagan administration shifted on Soviet engagement; the Bush administration eventually negotiated with North Korea despite earlier hostility. The 37% probability reflects genuine uncertainty about whether Trump's negotiating team views enrichment rights as a non-starter or a tradeable element. Market depth here depends partly on funding flows: traders confident in a "Yes" resolution need accessible deposit rails (SEPA transfers, Klarna instalment options) to build positions, whilst those hedging geopolitical risk require reliable withdrawal mechanisms for rapid position closure if tensions escalate.

Watch for statements from Trump's special envoy on Iran, scheduled congressional briefings, and any IAEA technical meetings signalling back-channel talks. Reuters and Bloomberg reported in early 2025 that preliminary discussions were occurring, though without confirmed US participation. The settlement window's 16-month runway allows time for multiple negotiating cycles, but any formal agreement announcement would likely compress odds sharply within days.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.