US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is whether the United States and Iran have an **announced diplomatic agreement** on traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by the settlement date. Reuters reported on 4 August that the latest shipping strike in the strait and conflicting signals from Washington and Tehran had raised uncertainty, with President Trump saying talks were under way while Iran denied that negotiations were taking place or scheduled.[1] That push-pull matters for the market because the contract only resolves on an official agreement, not on loose public language about “progress” or “final stages”.[1][7]

The present **61% implied YES** sits above a pure coin-flip because there is already a recent template for a deal: the two sides signed a memorandum of understanding in June that was described as reopening the strait and restoring shipping, and Reuters later reported on technical talks focused on implementing that framework.[9][3] The market is therefore pricing some continuity from the earlier ceasefire-and-maritime arrangement, but not full certainty, especially as Iranian officials have repeatedly insisted that Hormuz will not return to its pre-war status in the way outsiders may expect.[4][7] For a crowd-led market, depth can widen quickly when traders fund via faster rails, so watch whether new deposits arrive through low-friction options such as SEPA or stablecoin rails, which usually support tighter books than slower card-based on-ramps.

Catalysts are likely to be announcement-driven rather than military alone: a formal statement from Washington, Tehran, Oman, or Qatari mediators would matter more than press chatter, and Reuters noted that mediators were still working while the strait remained exposed to fresh incidents.[1] Traders should also watch whether any reported talks produce written language on permitting, restoring, or increasing shipping traffic, because the market requires an actual agreement instrument with binding commitments, not merely a ceasefire or general de-escalation.[1][16] If a deal is signed or publicly initialled, the reaction should be immediate; if the only updates are denials, ambiguity, or separate Omani discussions, the probability can drift lower despite headline noise.[1][7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by 2026? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.