Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Iran and Oman are negotiating a formal arrangement over how ships move through the Strait of Hormuz, including routing, oversight and any charges linked to maritime services. That matters because the market only resolves Yes if the two sides announce an actual diplomatic instrument, not just vague progress or a routing proposal; recent reporting says the sides are close, but details on fees, administration and wider security terms are still being worked out.[2][3][12][15]

The probability sits in the middle because there is already a clear trail of comparable steps, but not yet a clean endpoint. Reuters reported in June that a joint working group had been formed to continue talks, and later reports described Oman’s proposal for voluntary fees, Iran’s rejection of regional management, and then a fresh shift back towards a bilateral framework with route coordinates agreed in principle.[3][13][14][10] That combination supports a live deal path, yet the repeated disputes over who administers the waterway and whether any payment is mandatory make this look more like a negotiated framework than a done deal.[11][15]

For traders, the important catalysts are official statements from Tehran or Muscat, any joint communiqués, and whether the text uses treaty-like language rather than “in principle” wording. Reuters reported on 8 August that Iran said a deal was close but still insufficient on its own to reopen the waterway, with wider conditions still unresolved, while earlier coverage said a joint statement was under review and in final drafting.[12][7][1] In market terms, that sort of headline-driven flow can pull in fresh deposits quickly, especially if Klarna, SEPA or USDC on-ramps make it easy to top up and trade the move, but the book depth should still hinge on whether the announcement is definitive enough to survive the market’s exact wording test.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by 2026? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

Can UK traders use Klarna to deposit on Polymarket?

Polymarket does not natively accept Klarna. To fund a Polymarket account from the UK, you must first purchase USDC via a crypto exchange (Coinbase UK, Kraken) or Revolut, then transfer to a Polygon-compatible wallet. Some third-party on-ramps (MoonPay, Transak) accept UK debit cards and may support Klarna buy-now-pay-later for crypto purchases.

What payment methods can UK users use for Polymarket?

UK traders typically use: (1) Coinbase UK or Kraken — buy USDC with GBP debit card or bank transfer; (2) Revolut — buy crypto and send to wallet; (3) MoonPay or Transak — Visa/Mastercard UK debit card directly to USDC on Polygon. Standard GBP-to-USDC conversion fees range from 0.5–2.5%.

How long do Polymarket withdrawals take for UK users?

Polymarket withdrawals to your Polygon wallet are instant (on-chain). Converting USDC back to GBP via Coinbase UK or Kraken typically takes 1–3 business days for bank transfer, or near-instant for Revolut. Polygon gas fees are minimal (<$0.01 per transaction).