Highest temperature in NYC on June 9?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

New York City's peak temperature on 9 June 2026 will be recorded at LaGuardia Airport and resolved against historical Weather Underground data. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning traders must have funded accounts and verified deposit methods—whether via Klarna's deferred payment option, SEPA transfers, or USDC stablecoin rails—well before the final reading is locked in. Liquidity depth depends on early capital inflow; markets with shallow books often see wider spreads that penalise late entries, particularly on niche weather outcomes where trading volume clusters around specific temperature bands.

June temperatures in New York typically range from 75°F to 85°F, with historical data showing 9 June averages around 79°F. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific range or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful pricing across all buckets. Comparable June heat events—such as the 88°F peak recorded on 9 June 2019—provide calibration points, though climate variability means any single historical day offers limited predictive power for a specific future date.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service forecast updates released in the five days preceding settlement, as sudden heat dome formation or Atlantic weather system shifts can materially alter intraday highs. Withdrawal friction matters here: traders who've locked capital via slower SEPA rails face execution risk if they need to rebalance positions as forecasts sharpen. Klarna's instant settlement and USDC's blockchain-native transfers reduce this friction, making them preferred on-ramps for active weather traders managing rapid probability shifts.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Klarna UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Klarna UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.