Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
17% | 83% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
17% | 83% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 17% |
| Buffalo Bills | 14% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 10% |
| New England Patriots | 9% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 9% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 7% |
| Houston Texans | 7% |
| Denver Broncos | 7% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 6% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 3% |
| Cleveland Browns | 2% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 2% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 2% |
| Miami Dolphins | 1% |
| New York Jets | 1% |
| Tennessee Titans | 1% |
| Other | 0% |
Market context
The 2027 AFC Championship is the game that decides which AFC team reaches the Super Bowl, and the current crowd price of **14% YES** sits close to the market’s broad favourite cluster rather than implying a single runaway leader.[2][10] That matters for traders because this kind of mid-teens price usually reflects a live title race rather than a structural edge; current external futures markets have the Ravens and Bills near the front, with the Chiefs, Chargers and Patriots also priced as credible contenders.[1][4][7]
Historically, AFC futures tend to move on three inputs: quarterback health, seeding, and whether a team can secure home-field advantage deep into January. Recent odds trackers show Baltimore around +475 to +500 and Buffalo around +500 to +550, which converts to roughly a 16.7% to 18.2% implied chance before any margin, broadly consistent with the low-to-mid teens seen on prediction platforms.[1][4][9] That leaves room for price swings if one of the top seeds strengthens or if a long-shot contender strings together a strong regular season, especially because the conference has multiple teams clustered within a narrow band.[2][6]
For this market, the main catalysts are the 2026–27 schedule, playoff seeding tiebreakers, and any injury or roster news that changes who can plausibly win January games. Payment and funding flows can also shape book depth: easier deposits, lower fees, and faster withdrawal rails such as Klarna, SEPA and USDC typically bring in more participation, which can tighten spreads and make the price react faster to news. The key practical dependency is simple: once a team is eliminated from the AFC playoffs, that team’s contract resolves to **No**, so every divisional result in January can directly remove outcomes before the conference title game is even played.[8][10]
Methodology
This page compares Pro Football: 2027 AFC Champion with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- What's the minimum deposit?
- 10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
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