Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| $71 | 100% |
| $70 | 100% |
| $69 | 100% |
| $79 | 0% |
| $78 | 0% |
| $77 | 0% |
| $76 | 0% |
| $75 | 0% |
| $74 | 0% |
| $73 | 0% |
| $72 | 0% |
Market context
WTI crude oil settled at $72.08 per barrel on 9 July 2026, a figure that anchors the current market view where the crowd-implied probability of closing above any higher threshold is effectively zero. Historical patterns from the past year show WTI oscillating between $55 and $75, with sharp drops often triggered by geopolitical de-escalation or unexpected supply surges from OPEC+ members. In comparable cases where prices breached $70, the subsequent week typically saw a pullback to the $65–68 range, reinforcing the 0% probability assigned to a sustained breakout above current levels.
Traders should monitor upcoming announcements from the US Energy Information Administration on weekly inventory data, scheduled for release next Tuesday, alongside any statements from OPEC+ regarding production quotas. Recent reporting by Fortune notes that Brent crude reached $79.25 on 9 July, yet WTI lagged at $72.08, highlighting a widening spread that often pressures US benchmarks lower when global demand softens. The market’s traction on platforms like Polymarket-Klarna.co.uk reflects funding flows tied to deposit fees and withdrawal rails; as users navigate Klarna deposits or SEPA withdrawals, the depth of the book correlates directly with the liquidity available to absorb these friction costs, making the current consensus on price direction a function of both macro catalysts and micro-funding mechanics.
Methodology
This page compares WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above … on July 9? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
Trade WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above … on July 9? on Polymarket Klarna UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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