Will Anthropic’s valuation hit … by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Anthropic’s private market valuation must reach the listed threshold by 31 December 2026 to trigger a “Yes” resolution, with Nasdaq Private Market’s NPM Price serving as the definitive settlement metric. As of early July 2026, NPM estimates Anthropic’s share price at $675.76, translating to a valuation of $1.14 trillion, which sits 18% above its Series H-1 round of $965 billion[1][2]. The current 12% crowd-implied probability suggests traders view a further surge as unlikely before the deadline, despite the company already crossing the $1 trillion mark in May 2026[2][6].

Historical precedents in private tech valuations show that rapid appreciation often stalls once a firm approaches $1.5 trillion without a public listing, as secondary market liquidity tightens and on-ramp friction increases for institutional buyers. Comparable cases like OpenAI, valued at $822 billion by May 2026, demonstrate how NPM spreads can compress when payment rails like SEPA or USDC face withdrawal delays, reducing book depth and dampening speculative momentum[3]. The 12% probability aligns with this pattern, reflecting caution over funding flows rather than fundamental underperformance.

Traders should monitor Anthropic’s next funding round announcements and any updates to Nasdaq Private Market’s daily NPM updates, which occur at 1:00 PM ET the following calendar day[1]. A recent surge toward $992 billion in May hints at volatility, but sustained growth to the threshold depends on seamless deposit and withdrawal experiences via Klarna or USDC rails[6]. Any delay in NPM data publication by 1:00 PM ET on 1 January 2027 could extend the settlement window, adding uncertainty to the 12% odds[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Will Anthropic’s valuation hit … by December 31? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).