Türkiye vs. United States - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The upcoming FIFA World Cup match between Türkiye and the United States, scheduled for 10:00 PM ET on 25 June 2026 at Los Angeles Stadium in Inglewood, represents the first time these nations have faced each other in World Cup history. While the USMNT holds a slight historical edge with two wins, one loss, and one draw across four prior encounters dating back to 1991, the current crowd-implied probability of 5% for an exact score suggests traders are pricing in significant on-ramp friction for depositing funds via Klarna or SEPA rails. This low liquidity mirrors the hesitation seen when withdrawal fees on USDC rails spike, deterring smaller participants from building book depth on niche outcomes.

Historically, matches between these sides have produced balanced results, with the last two encounters won by the USA and the sole loss occurring in the 2003 Confederations Cup, a tournament disbanded in 2017. Comparable cases from recent World Cup Group D fixtures show that exact scores often resolve to "Any Other Score" when teams rotate key players, as Pochettino is likely to do after two wins, while Türkiye desperately seeks a result. This pattern frames the current 5% probability as a reflection of payment dependency rather than pure sporting expectation, where funding flows through Klarna and SEPA dictate the depth of the book.

Traders should monitor official line-up announcements and any delays in payment processing for Klarna deposits, as these dependencies directly impact market traction. Recent coverage from FOX Sports confirms the match will be streamed on FOX One, but the settlement window ending 02:00:00Z on 26 June 2026 means any postponement could freeze withdrawal rails temporarily. As noted by U.S. Soccer, the teams have met five times with seven total goals scored, yet the lack of World Cup precedent introduces volatility that payment friction exacerbates, making exact score outcomes particularly sensitive to funding availability.

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Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Klarna UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.