Tunisia vs. Japan - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Tunisia meet Japan in the World Cup group stage, with the market pricing a low-probability exact scoreline at 3% YES. Japan have the clearer historical edge in this fixture, winning three of the four meetings on record, including a 2-0 friendly win in October 2023, while Tunisia’s lone win came in 2002[1][8]. That kind of head-to-head profile usually supports Japan being favoured to control the game state, but exact-score markets remain heavily skewed towards low-frequency outcomes because a narrow win, a draw, or a late second goal can all push settlement into “Any Other Score”[2].

The current price also sits against recent form from the opening round: Japan drew 2-2 with the Netherlands, while Tunisia lost 5-1 to Sweden, results that imply different scoring baselines heading into this match[3]. Reuters noted that Tunisia v Japan is FIFA’s 1,000th World Cup match, which has added narrative weight but does not change settlement mechanics[3]. For traders focused on funding flow rather than football alone, the key friction is whether users can get money on and off-platform quickly enough to support book depth around a niche exact-score contract; deposits via card or Klarna-style on-ramps tend to be faster than bank transfer, while SEPA and USDC rails can matter more for larger balances and withdrawals.

Watch for team-sheet news, any late schedule change, and confirmation that the match proceeds as planned at the listed start time, because this market stays open if postponed and only settles on the final score after regulation plus stoppage time[2]. In practical terms, liquidity usually concentrates once line-ups are confirmed and when adjacent markets move in the final hours, so any shift in expected goal volume can change how much crowd capital sits behind the exact-score ladder rather than the broader Japan-favoured side of the book[2][7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Klarna UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.