Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Inflation 20+ times | 100% |
| Good day | 100% |
| North Star | 100% |
| Predecessor | 100% |
| Bet / Betting | 100% |
| Balance Sheet | 100% |
| Central Bank | 100% |
| Productivity | 100% |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | 100% |
| Shock | 100% |
| Uncertainty | 100% |
| Restrictive | 100% |
| Dollar | 100% |
| Pandemic | 100% |
| Progress | 100% |
| Echo of History | 46% |
| Holding | 44% |
| Spending | 23% |
| Anchor / Anchored | 22% |
| Dissent | 21% |
| Projection | 5% |
| Trump | 3% |
| Independence | 2% |
| Recession | 2% |
| Tax | 2% |
| Task Force 20+ times | 1% |
| Oil | 1% |
| President | 1% |
| Inflation 40+ times | 0% |
| Groupthink / Group think | 0% |
| Consumer Confidence | 0% |
| Iran | 0% |
| Crypto / Cryptocurrency | 0% |
| Renovation | 0% |
| Good Afternoon | 0% |
| -No Qualifying Event- | 0% |
| Innovation | 0% |
Market context
The What will Kevin Warsh say during July Press Conference? prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. Kevin Warsh is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on July 29, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the follow…
Methodology
This page compares What will Kevin Warsh say during July Press Conference? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
- What's the minimum deposit?
- 10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
Trade What will Kevin Warsh say during July Press Conference? on Polymarket Klarna UK
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