Fed rate cut by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady at 3.5% to 3.75% during the January 2026 meeting, pausing the cutting cycle that had seen three consecutive reductions in late 2025. This decision reflects a shift toward a more hawkish stance as solid job growth and resilient inflation data dampened expectations for immediate further easing, leaving the upper bound of the target range unchanged.

Historically, such pauses follow periods of aggressive cuts when economic data proves stronger than anticipated, mirroring the 2024 trajectory where a 50-basis-point cut in September preceded a stabilisation before the next move. With the probability of a January cut now standing at merely 23% and dropping further in recent weeks, the market’s 0% implied probability for a cut between December 2025 and January 2026 aligns with the Fed’s dot-plot projecting only one additional reduction later in 2026, likely in March or June.

Traders should monitor upcoming inflation reports and the FOMC’s March meeting schedule, as Goldman Sachs forecasts two cuts in 2026 only if data weakens significantly. The CME FedWatch tool has already shown a sharp decline in January cut odds, reinforcing that the next move depends on fresh economic signals rather than pre-emptive action. This market’s traction ties directly to funding flows from payment rails like Klarna and SEPA, where deposit friction and withdrawal fees influence book depth as users allocate capital to bets on future rate movements.

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Methodology

This page compares Fed rate cut by 2026? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).