Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Federal Reserve's policy rate sits at 4.25–4.50% as of early 2026. Over the next three months, the Federal Open Market Committee will convene on 17–18 March, 28–29 April, and 16–17 June to decide whether to hold, cut, or raise that upper bound. Each decision hinges on incoming inflation data, employment figures, and economic growth signals. A qualifying cut would lower the upper bound; a qualifying hike would raise it. The current 0% probability assigned to rate cuts across this window reflects market pricing that assumes the Fed maintains its current stance or tightens further.

Historical precedent suggests such flat probabilities emerge when inflation remains sticky or when labour markets stay resilient. In late 2023 and early 2024, similar certainty around "no cuts" persisted until December's surprise pivot, demonstrating how quickly consensus can shift when data deteriorates sharply. The Fed's own forward guidance and recent communications from Chair Powell will shape expectations, but traders should note that markets have repeatedly underestimated the speed of policy reversals when recession risks spike.

Catalysts include the Consumer Price Index releases scheduled for February, March, and May, alongside non-farm payroll reports before each FOMC meeting. The 12 February jobs report and 12 March inflation print will carry particular weight for the March decision. Deposit flows and market liquidity on prediction platforms often track Fed expectations closely; traders funding positions via Klarna or SEPA transfers should monitor whether consensus shifts as economic data arrives, as rapid repricing can affect order book depth and settlement timing.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.