Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1,400 | 100% |
| 1,500 | 100% |
| 1,600 | 100% |
| 1,700 | 100% |
| 1,800 | 100% |
| 1,900 | 96% |
| 2,000 | 0% |
| 2,100 | 0% |
| 2,200 | 0% |
| 2,300 | 0% |
| 2,400 | 0% |
Market context
Ethereum’s Binance ETH/USDT 12:00 ET candle needs to finish above the market’s strike for a Yes settlement, so the relevant question is whether spot stays firm through the midday US session rather than whether ETH is simply higher at some point intraday. Current ETH pricing across reference sites is clustered around $1,913, with Investing.com showing $1,913.77 and Coinbase materially higher at $3,036.82, underlining that this market must be read against Binance’s own tape rather than broader crypto quotes.[1][4]
The 100% crowd-implied Yes suggests traders are treating the strike as already out of reach or extremely likely to clear, which is a common pattern when a market is launched far below the prevailing spot level.[20] Recent comparable snapshots also show ETH trading close to $1,900 with modest upside momentum: Yahoo Finance reported ETH at $1,929.36 on Friday morning after a higher open, while CoinStats and CoinMarketCap both placed it near $1,913 to $1,917 with only small daily gains.[8][3][6] That kind of tight range tends to produce deep book interest when funding is easy and cheap, because small top-ups through card, SEPA, or USDC can quickly refill the yes side.
For catalysts, traders will watch whether Binance spot liquidity remains stable into the noon ET print and whether any payment-rail announcements affect net inflows from Europe or card-funded buying. Klarna-style on-ramp access, SEPA settlement timing, and USDC withdrawal availability matter here because they change how quickly fresh capital can reach Binance and how easily traders can recycle balances after hedging or arb activity. In practical terms, any improvement in fiat access or reduction in withdrawal friction can widen book depth, while delays in bank rails or stablecoin transfers can thin it out around the settlement window.[7][12]
Methodology
This page compares Ethereum above … on August 8? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- Can UK traders use Klarna to deposit on Polymarket?
- Polymarket does not natively accept Klarna. To fund a Polymarket account from the UK, you must first purchase USDC via a crypto exchange (Coinbase UK, Kraken) or Revolut, then transfer to a Polygon-compatible wallet. Some third-party on-ramps (MoonPay, Transak) accept UK debit cards and may support Klarna buy-now-pay-later for crypto purchases.
- What payment methods can UK users use for Polymarket?
- UK traders typically use: (1) Coinbase UK or Kraken — buy USDC with GBP debit card or bank transfer; (2) Revolut — buy crypto and send to wallet; (3) MoonPay or Transak — Visa/Mastercard UK debit card directly to USDC on Polygon. Standard GBP-to-USDC conversion fees range from 0.5–2.5%.
- How long do Polymarket withdrawals take for UK users?
- Polymarket withdrawals to your Polygon wallet are instant (on-chain). Converting USDC back to GBP via Coinbase UK or Kraken typically takes 1–3 business days for bank transfer, or near-instant for Revolut. Polygon gas fees are minimal (<$0.01 per transaction).
Trade Ethereum above … on August 8? on Polymarket Klarna UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →