Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-3.5) vs AG.AL International (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-3.5) vs AG.AL International (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-2.5) vs AG.AL International (+2.5) | 99% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-5.5) vs AG.AL International (+5.5) | 99% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-4.5) vs AG.AL International (+4.5) | 99% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-6.5) vs AG.AL International (+6.5) | 99% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-7.5) vs AG.AL International (+7.5) | 99% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-8.5) vs AG.AL International (+8.5) | 99% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 99% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 99% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-2.5) vs AG.AL International (+2.5) | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-4.5) vs AG.AL International (+4.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-5.5) vs AG.AL International (+5.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-6.5) vs AG.AL International (+6.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-7.5) vs AG.AL International (+7.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-2.5) vs AG.AL International (+2.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-4.5) vs AG.AL International (+4.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-2.5) vs MIBR LOS (+2.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 28.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 29.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-2.5) vs MIBR LOS (+2.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 3% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 1% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-3.5) vs AG.AL International (+3.5) | 1% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 1% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 1% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 1% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-9.5) vs AG.AL International (+9.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: MIBR LOS (-1.5) vs AG.AL International (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map Handicap: AG.AL (-1.5) vs MIBR LOS (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
The underlying event is a decisive Valorant match between MIBR LOS and AG.AL International at the Esports World Cup 2026, scheduled for 7:00 AM ET on 7 July. AG.AL International eliminated MIBR LOS in a 2-0 Decider victory, with Septem’s leadership and clutch execution securing the win for the international side[2]. The market currently implies a 0% chance for MIBR LOS to win, reflecting the match outcome already determined[1].
Historically, similar decider matches in VCT Americas have seen dominant teams like 100 Thieves eliminate MIBR in playoffs, ending their Champions Shanghai race with a 25-13-5 record[4]. These precedents show that MIBR’s elimination in high-stakes deciders is consistent with past performance, framing the current 0% probability as a logical reflection of their recent form rather than an anomaly.
Traders should monitor official tournament announcements for any schedule changes or cancellations, as delays beyond seven days would reset the market to 50-50[1]. The Esports World Cup 2026 Group D match details are confirmed on Liquipedia and VLR.gg, with live scores and streams available for verification[6][7]. Funding flows into prediction markets, driven by deposit rails like SEPA and USDC, directly influence book depth and liquidity for this event[3].
Methodology
This page compares Valorant: MIBR LOS vs AG.AL International (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
Trade Valorant: MIBR LOS vs AG.AL International (BO3) - Es… on Polymarket Klarna UK
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