Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
86% | 14% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
86% | 14% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 86% |
| Game 1 Winner | 77% |
| Game 2 Winner | 76% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 67% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 67% |
| Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) | 60% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 56% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 56% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 54% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 53% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 52% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 44% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 41% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 37% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 35% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 27% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 27% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 25% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 25% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 18% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 17% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 14% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 13% |
Market context
T1 and Karmine Corp meet in the League of Legends Esports World Cup semifinal on 18 July, with the winner advancing to the grand final. The best-of-three format means first to two map victories takes the tie. T1 are South Korea's most decorated franchise, with three World Championship titles and consistent LCK dominance, whilst Karmine Corp represent the European LEC and have reached this stage as one of the tournament's surprise performers. The 77% implied probability reflects T1's historical pedigree and recent form, though the semifinal stage introduces volatility that separates favourites from confirmed winners.
Historical precedent suggests Korean teams maintain structural advantages in international LoL competition—LCK representatives have won eight of the last twelve Worlds finals—yet Karmine Corp's path to this semifinal indicates they've navigated a credible bracket. T1's semifinal record across major tournaments shows they advance roughly 70–75% of the time when seeded as primary favourites, a figure consistent with current market pricing. European teams have occasionally upset Korean sides in best-of-three formats when they secure early map momentum, though sustained execution across multiple games favours T1's deeper champion pool and mid-game coordination.
Traders should monitor team rosters for last-minute substitutions and scrim results circulating on esports news outlets in the 48 hours before kickoff. Patch changes to League's competitive build, released typically one week before major tournaments, can shift champion viability and favour whichever region adapted faster during practice. Withdrawal rails via Klarna and SEPA remain active for UK and EU traders; liquidity depth will likely increase as match time approaches, particularly if injury reports or roster announcements emerge that shift perception of T1's preparation status.
Methodology
This page compares LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
- Are payment details protected?
- Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.
Trade LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - Esports World Cup Pl… on Polymarket Klarna UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →