LoL: Supernova vs Conviction (BO3) - North American Challengers League Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The North American Challengers League upper bracket semifinal between Supernova and Conviction is scheduled for 22 May at 7:00 PM ET, with the winner advancing toward the regional finals. This best-of-three format determines seeding and momentum heading into the final stages of the 2026 NAC season. The 0% implied probability reflects either minimal trading volume on this particular matchup or a technical settlement condition that has not yet resolved.

Historical precedent in NAC playoffs shows that seeding and recent form carry substantial predictive weight. Teams entering upper bracket semifinals typically demonstrate consistency across regular season performance and playoff qualification rounds. Conviction's path to this semifinal and Supernova's bracket position will have shaped roster confidence and preparation depth. Previous NAC seasons indicate that upsets in upper bracket semifinals occur but remain statistically uncommon when comparing team win rates and head-to-head records. The current zero probability may signal that one team is heavily favoured based on recent results or that the market has not yet accumulated sufficient liquidity to establish a meaningful spread.

Traders should monitor official NAC schedule confirmations and any roster announcements in the week preceding 22 May, as last-minute changes or player availability issues have occasionally affected playoff matchups. Payment processing for positions in this market operates through standard deposit rails—SEPA transfers, Klarna instalments, and USDC on-chain settlement all function without friction for UK and EU participants. Book depth typically increases as match day approaches; early positions may face wider spreads than those entered closer to the 7:00 PM ET start time.

Methodology

We track LoL: Supernova vs Conviction (BO3) - North American Challengers League Playoffs on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.