Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
71% | 29% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
71% | 29% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 71% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 71% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 65% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 65% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 63% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 52% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 52% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 51% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Game 1 Winner | 47% |
| Match Winner | 47% |
| Game 2 Winner | 45% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 42% |
| Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs JD Gaming (+1.5) | 33% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 29% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 29% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 28% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 28% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 28% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 28% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
Market context
JD Gaming’s BO3 against Anyone’s Legend in LPL Group Ascend is the kind of fixture where the market can move on small changes in funding flow as much as on team strength. At a crowd-implied **45% yes**, the book is not pricing JD Gaming as a clear favourite, which leaves room for traders who can get money in quickly and cheaply; on markets with Klarna, SEPA, or USDC on-ramp options, lower deposit friction and faster settlement access tend to support deeper order flow and tighter spreads than slower bank rails.
The recent comparable read-through is straightforward: outside prediction coverage for the same pairing has leaned JD Gaming, with one 2026 Split 2 result page recording a **2-1 JD Gaming win** and another 2026 prediction page also backing **JD Gaming 2-1**.[1][2] A further Bo3.gg preview for the same teams in LPL 2026 Split 1 likewise forecast **JD Gaming 2-1**.[3] That history matters because short-series LoL markets can reprice sharply when traders anchor to prior head-to-head outcomes, but those comparisons are only useful if the line-up and bracket context are similar.
For catalysts, the key checks are the final confirmed start time, any roster or substitute announcements, and whether the match remains on schedule before the 2026-07-23 settlement window closes. Markets on scheduled esports series can drift if organisers change the bracket order, if broadcast listings shift, or if a delay pushes completion beyond the seven-day rule, which would force a 50-50 outcome under the market terms. Depth is also sensitive to funding convenience: when deposits via Klarna or SEPA are slow, or when USDC rails are the easiest route for larger balances, liquidity often arrives unevenly and the implied price can stay softer than the underlying matchup would otherwise justify.
Methodology
This page compares LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
- What's the minimum deposit?
- 10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).
- Are payment details protected?
- Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.
Trade LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group … on Polymarket Klarna UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →