Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
74% | 26% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
74% | 26% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4? | 74% |
| Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs G2 Esports (+1.5) | 69% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 62% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? | 61% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 59% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 56% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 52% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 51% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 49% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 49% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 49% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 49% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 49% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 44% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 43% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3? | 43% |
| Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs G2 Esports (+2.5) | 41% |
| Game 4 Winner | 36% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4? | 31% |
| Game 2 Winner | 30% |
| Game 3 Winner | 30% |
| Game 1 Winner | 28% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 27% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 25% |
| Match Winner | 14% |
Market context
G2 Esports faces T1 in the Lower Bracket quarterfinal 2 of the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, a best-of-five match scheduled for 4:00 AM ET on 8 July 2026. The market currently prices a G2 win at 28%, implying T1 is the clear favourite despite G2’s recent 1–0 victory over T1 in November 2025. Historical precedence from MSI 2017 shows T1 dominating G2 with a 3–1 win in the final, reinforcing T1’s pedigree in high-stakes MSI encounters. Strafe users similarly back T1 with 69.4% of votes, aligning with the 28% implied probability for G2 and suggesting the crowd’s confidence is well-founded rather than speculative.
Traders should monitor official LoL Esports schedule updates and any pre-match announcements regarding player availability or roster changes, as dependencies on individual performance can shift odds rapidly. Recent coverage from Strafe highlights T1’s consistent dominance in head-to-head records, having won seven of ten matches against G2, which underpins the current pricing. With the settlement window ending 14:00 UTC on 8 July, liquidity remains tied to funding flows through Klarna, SEPA, and USDC rails; deeper on-ramp activity correlates with tighter spreads and more accurate price discovery. Any delay beyond seven days without a winner would trigger a 50–50 resolution, making timing a critical risk factor for position holders.
Methodology
This page compares LoL: G2 Esports vs T1 (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
- Are payment details protected?
- Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.
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