Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 90% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 90% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 10% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 10% |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: CNV (-1.5) vs Dorado Gaming (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
Conviction’s group-stage BO3 against Dorado Gaming is the sort of North American Challengers League fixture where the price is shaped as much by access to fresh funding as by form. The market is already pinned at a crowd-implied **100% YES**, which in practice reflects near-total conviction rather than a broad two-sided book; on a platform like this, that kind of skew usually comes from deposits arriving through the easiest rails and staying concentrated on one side. Where on-ramp friction is lower — for example, fast card funding, bank transfer routes such as **SEPA**, or stablecoin top-ups in **USDC** — order flow can build depth quickly, while higher-friction withdrawals and payment reversals tend to reduce churn and keep positions sticky.
The match-up itself points in the same direction. Conviction beat Dorado Gaming **2-0** in their May meeting, and public match pages now show Conviction as the clear favourite, with one listing putting them around **71%** and another reporting unanimous crowd sentiment at **100%** for Conviction. Liquipedia’s structure for the NACL regular season confirms these are **best-of-three** matches, which matters because BO3s reduce upset volatility versus a single map and make prior head-to-heads more informative than in shorter formats.[14][15][5][7][8]
For traders, the key catalysts are whether the series actually starts on schedule and whether the official bracket remains unchanged. The market description states that cancellation, a tie, or a delay beyond seven days would force a **50-50** resolution, so any scheduling note from the league or broadcast partner is more important than late social-media chatter. A live score page had the match listed for **14 May 2026** earlier in the cycle, while current listings place it on **31 July 2026**, which shows why settlement risk here is tied to event administration as well as team strength.[1][3][7]
Methodology
This page compares LoL: Conviction vs Dorado Gaming (BO3) - North American Challengers League Group Stage with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
- What's the minimum deposit?
- 10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
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