Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
65% | 35% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
65% | 35% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 65% |
| Match Winner | 59% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 45% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 27% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 27% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
Market context
Bilibili Gaming and T1 face off in a single-game League of Legends Upper Bracket final at the Esports World Cup Group C, with the match set for 5:00 AM ET on 16 July. The crowd currently prices a T1 victory at 60% probability, reflecting their historical dominance over the Chinese squad.
Historical head-to-head data frames this probability as conservative rather than speculative. T1 defeated Bilibili Gaming 2–0 at the 2023 World Championship Swiss Round and secured a 3–0 victory in a separate LoL match recorded by EGamersWorld[2][3]. While a 2024 Esports World Cup quarterfinal prediction suggested a tighter 2–1 series for T1, the consistent pattern of clean wins supports the market’s lean toward the Korean team, even in a BO1 format where variance is higher[1].
Traders should monitor the match start time and any pre-game roster announcements, as delays beyond seven days trigger a 50–50 settlement. The settlement window closes at 15:00 UTC on 16 July, meaning deposit timing via Klarna or SEPA rails directly impacts exposure before the event resolves. Funding flows into USDC or fiat on-ramps correlate with book depth; a surge in deposits from European users often precedes sharper pricing moves in LoL markets tied to T1’s global fanbase. No official delay notices have been issued as of 23:59 UTC on 15 July.
Methodology
This page compares LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group C with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- What's the minimum deposit?
- 10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).
- Are payment details protected?
- Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.
Trade LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 (BO1) - Esports World Cup… on Polymarket Klarna UK
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