Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
79% | 21% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
79% | 21% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 79% |
| Game 1 Winner | 72% |
| Game 2 Winner | 72% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 56% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 56% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 53% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 52% |
| Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA (+1.5) | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 49% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 45% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 44% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 44% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 43% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 43% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 43% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 43% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 40% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 39% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 39% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 31% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 30% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
Market context
Bilibili Gaming face Dplus KIA in the League of Legends Quarterfinal 4 of the Esports World Cup Playoffs, a best-of-three match scheduled for 9:30 AM ET today. The crowd has assigned a 73% probability to Bilibili Gaming winning, reflecting strong confidence in the Chinese side despite Dplus KIA’s reputation as a dominant Korean contender. This probability suggests traders view Bilibili as the more likely winner, though the BO3 format introduces volatility that can shift outcomes quickly.
Historically, similar BO3 matchups in high-stakes LoL playoffs have seen probabilities between 65% and 75% for the favoured team, with actual win rates often tracking closely unless a key player is absent or a meta shift occurs. In past Esports World Cup events, teams with similar pre-match odds have won roughly 70% of their matches, indicating the current 73% figure is well-calibrated and not overly speculative.
Traders should monitor live roster confirmations and any in-game patch notes released before the match, as these can alter team performance significantly. A recent announcement from the Esports World Cup organisers confirmed the match will proceed unless technical issues arise, reducing cancellation risk [1]. Additionally, funding flows via Klarna and SEPA on-ramps are critical; deeper liquidity from these rails correlates with tighter spreads and more accurate price discovery, directly influencing book depth and market efficiency.
Sources: 1
Methodology
This page compares LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- What's the minimum deposit?
- 10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
- Are payment details protected?
- Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.
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