Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 100% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 100% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 100% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 2? | 90% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Match Winner | 1% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 1% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 1% |
| Any Player Rampage | 1% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 1% |
| Any Player Rampage | 1% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 1% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 1? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 2? | 1% |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: TR (-1.5) vs Yellow Submarine (+1.5) | 0% |
| Game Handicap: YeS (-1.5) vs Team Resilience (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
Yellow Submarine and Team Resilience are playing a best-of-three Dota 2 playoff match at the Games of the Future, with live listings already showing the series in progress, which explains why the market has moved to a crowd-implied **100% YES** price on Yellow Submarine. Match-tracking pages place the start at 08:00 UTC, and several tournament listings note the playoff context and LAN setting in Astana, so the main live risk is not scheduling ambiguity but whether the result is formally completed before the settlement window closes.[1][2][3][16]
The current price should be read against a limited but useful form snapshot: Strafe lists Team Resilience slightly higher in its world rankings, while Yellow Submarine has the stronger recent match record on that page, and both teams were shown as close in community voting before the match began.[5] Other match pages also show Team Resilience arriving off a win over Midas Club and Yellow Submarine coming in after a loss to Vici Gaming, which fits a volatile BO3 where map trades are common and the market can still be sensitive to a reverse sweep or a delayed official result.[13][10]
For traders, the key catalysts are not just gameplay but payment and liquidity flows. A market with 100% crowd pricing can still see thin book depth if new deposits are slower to arrive, so the practical watch-items are whether users can top up quickly through Klarna, SEPA or USDC, and whether withdrawals keep capital circulating back into the book rather than sitting idle off-platform. Any late tournament update, stream delay, or scoreboard correction matters because this market only resolves to 50-50 if the match is cancelled, tied, or not settled within seven days of the scheduled date, but a match already underway is usually the strongest anchor for final resolution.[1][2][3]
Methodology
This page compares Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Team Resilience (BO3) - Games of the Future Playoffs with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
- Are payment details protected?
- Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.
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