Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 51% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2? | 51% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 1? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 1% |
| Any Player Rampage | 1% |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: XctN (-1.5) vs Amaru Gaming (+1.5) | 0% |
| Game Handicap: Amaru Gaming (-1.5) vs Execration (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
Execration and Amaru Gaming are due to meet in a best-of-three Dota 2 group match at the Games of the Future, and the market is effectively pricing a completed result rather than a cancellation risk. Live and fixture pages show the series as scheduled for 05:00 GMT on 1 August, with Execration listed around the low-20s to mid-20s in world rankings and Amaru Gaming a few places lower, which supports a narrow, not lopsided, pre-match edge despite the current crowd being fully one-sided[2][3][5][16].
The comparable frame is a short-form group-stage match between teams with limited head-to-head history: Strafe notes this is the first recorded meeting between Execration and Amaru Gaming, while recent form is mixed on both sides, with Execration winning 2 of their last 5 and Amaru Gaming 1 of 5[2]. That kind of profile usually leaves little room for deep book confidence unless one side is expected to field its strongest roster and arrive on schedule, because Bo3 Dota markets can reprice sharply on late line-up or bracket news rather than on reputation alone[1][2].
For traders focused on funding friction, the practical driver of depth is whether new money can enter quickly through low-cost rails. Markets like this tend to attract thinner but faster capital than major sports books, so deposits via **Klarna**, **SEPA**, or stablecoin on-ramps such as **USDC** can matter more than raw sentiment: if a payment route is instant, book depth can refresh around late team-sheet or start-time updates, whereas bank delays or withdrawal friction can leave the order book stale. The key catalysts are simple: final confirmation the match is live, any delay beyond the scheduled window, and any roster or schedule change from the tournament feed, because a no-contest outcome would settle 50-50 under the market rules[3][5].
Methodology
This page compares Dota 2: Execration vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - Games of the Future Group A with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
- What's the minimum deposit?
- 10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
- Are payment details protected?
- Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.
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