Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
61% | 39% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
61% | 39% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 61% |
| Game 2 Winner | 60% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 3? | 60% |
| Game 1 Winner | 59% |
| Ends in Daytime | 56% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 49% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 48% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 47% |
| Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Team Spirit (+1.5) | 36% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 34% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 34% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 32% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 32% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 30% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 30% |
| Any Player Rampage | 23% |
| Any Player Rampage | 23% |
Market context
TEAM VISION and Team Spirit will compete in Round 4 of The International 2026 group stage on 15 August at 01:00 ET. The match is a best-of-three format within a larger Swiss-system tournament structure that determines seeding for the main event. Both teams enter from the Southeast Asian and CIS regions respectively, with differing preparation timelines and recent LAN exposure.
Team Spirit's historical record at The International favours them: they reached the grand final in 2021 and have consistently qualified for the event's latter stages. TEAM VISION, by contrast, has less established pedigree at Valve's flagship tournament, though Southeast Asian Dota has produced surprise runs in recent years. The current 59% crowd probability for TEAM VISION suggests the market is pricing in either recent form shifts, roster changes, or perceived meta alignment rather than historical tournament seeding alone. Comparable group-stage matchups between established CIS sides and emerging regional challengers typically settle within a 55–65% range for the favoured team, indicating this probability sits within expected bounds.
Traders should monitor roster confirmations and scrim results through early August, as both organisations may adjust line-ups ahead of the event. Deposit friction via Klarna and SEPA rails will influence book depth; deeper liquidity typically emerges 48–72 hours before match time as European traders gain access to streamlined payment on-ramps. Any official postponement beyond 29 August triggers a 50-50 resolution, removing directional edge and collapsing trading volume. Schedule dependencies include other group matches that may affect tiebreaker scenarios.
Methodology
This page compares Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Group Stage with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Can UK traders use Klarna to deposit on Polymarket?
- Polymarket does not natively accept Klarna. To fund a Polymarket account from the UK, you must first purchase USDC via a crypto exchange (Coinbase UK, Kraken) or Revolut, then transfer to a Polygon-compatible wallet. Some third-party on-ramps (MoonPay, Transak) accept UK debit cards and may support Klarna buy-now-pay-later for crypto purchases.
- What payment methods can UK users use for Polymarket?
- UK traders typically use: (1) Coinbase UK or Kraken — buy USDC with GBP debit card or bank transfer; (2) Revolut — buy crypto and send to wallet; (3) MoonPay or Transak — Visa/Mastercard UK debit card directly to USDC on Polygon. Standard GBP-to-USDC conversion fees range from 0.5–2.5%.
- How long do Polymarket withdrawals take for UK users?
- Polymarket withdrawals to your Polygon wallet are instant (on-chain). Converting USDC back to GBP via Coinbase UK or Kraken typically takes 1–3 business days for bank transfer, or near-instant for Revolut. Polygon gas fees are minimal (<$0.01 per transaction).
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