Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| Game 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 90% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 90% |
| Any Player Rampage | 90% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 10% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Ends in Daytime | 0% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
Market context
Team Yandex faces Inner Circle in a Dota 2 Best-of-2 match at the Esports World Cup Group D, scheduled to begin at 16:30 UTC on 8 July 2026. The crowd-implied probability sits at 100% YES for Team Yandex, reflecting overwhelming confidence in their victory. This match is live-streamed via Twitch and YouTube, with real-time scores tracked on platforms like DLTV and Sofascore[1][5].
Historically, such 100% probabilities in esports prediction markets have preceded decisive wins when one team dominates a clear streak, as seen with Team Yandex’s current 7-win, 2-loss record[3]. Comparable cases from past Esports World Cups show that when a team enters with a dominant form and a full roster, book depth surges alongside funding flows from Klarna and SEPA deposit rails, reinforcing the market’s certainty[9]. Traders should note that payment friction on USDC or Klarna on-ramps can temporarily dampen liquidity, but sustained traction correlates with seamless withdrawal rails.
Key catalysts include the official start time confirmation and any roster changes, though Team Yandex has played with their main roster throughout the tournament[9]. Recent coverage from EGamersWorld confirms the BO2 format and the teams’ current streaks[3]. Traders should monitor live score updates on DLTV for early map outcomes, as Map 1 results often dictate the final settlement[2]. Any delay beyond seven days or cancellation would reset the market to 50-50, but no such risk is currently evident.
Methodology
This page compares Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Inner Circle (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group D with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
- Are payment details protected?
- Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.
Trade Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Inner Circle (BO2) - Esports … on Polymarket Klarna UK
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