Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
79% | 21% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
79% | 21% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 79% |
| Game 1 Winner | 70% |
| Game 2 Winner | 70% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 57% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 53% |
| Ends in Daytime | 52% |
| Ends in Daytime | 52% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 52% |
| Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Resilience (+1.5) | 51% |
| Ends in Daytime | 51% |
| Any Player Rampage | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 49% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 48% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 47% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 41% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 35% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 35% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 28% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 28% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 27% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 27% |
| Any Player Rampage | 11% |
| Any Player Rampage | 9% |
Market context
Team Spirit and Team Resilience will face off in a best-of-three elimination match at The International 2026, Dota 2's premier annual championship. The match is scheduled for 16 August at 01:00 ET, with settlement closing at 11:00 ET the same day. A 70% crowd probability favours Team Spirit, reflecting their stronger recent form and higher seeding into the tournament bracket. The International's elimination rounds typically draw substantial liquidity because outcomes directly determine prize-pool distribution—teams eliminated here forfeit access to the remaining stages' purse allocations, creating high-stakes incentives that correlate with trading volume.
Historical precedent suggests that crowd probabilities in The International's elimination rounds track closely with pre-tournament rankings and recent LAN performance. Team Spirit's qualification path and roster stability relative to Team Resilience's recent roster changes or tournament preparation would typically justify a 70–30 split. However, single-elimination Dota 2 matches remain volatile; upsets occur when teams exploit meta shifts or execute unconventional strategies. Comparable matches from The International 2023 and 2024 showed that favourites priced at 65–75% won roughly 72% of the time, though variance increased when teams had limited recent head-to-head data.
Traders should monitor official tournament announcements regarding any schedule changes—The International has historically rescheduled matches due to technical issues or player health concerns, with the 30 August deadline providing a two-week buffer. Deposit and withdrawal flows via Klarna and SEPA typically spike 12–24 hours before major esports eliminations, as retail traders increase exposure. Watch for last-minute roster confirmations or coach statements released within 48 hours of match time, as these often trigger repricing in thinly-traded markets.
Methodology
This page compares Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Elimination Round with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- Can UK traders use Klarna to deposit on Polymarket?
- Polymarket does not natively accept Klarna. To fund a Polymarket account from the UK, you must first purchase USDC via a crypto exchange (Coinbase UK, Kraken) or Revolut, then transfer to a Polygon-compatible wallet. Some third-party on-ramps (MoonPay, Transak) accept UK debit cards and may support Klarna buy-now-pay-later for crypto purchases.
- What payment methods can UK users use for Polymarket?
- UK traders typically use: (1) Coinbase UK or Kraken — buy USDC with GBP debit card or bank transfer; (2) Revolut — buy crypto and send to wallet; (3) MoonPay or Transak — Visa/Mastercard UK debit card directly to USDC on Polygon. Standard GBP-to-USDC conversion fees range from 0.5–2.5%.
- How long do Polymarket withdrawals take for UK users?
- Polymarket withdrawals to your Polygon wallet are instant (on-chain). Converting USDC back to GBP via Coinbase UK or Kraken typically takes 1–3 business days for bank transfer, or near-instant for Revolut. Polygon gas fees are minimal (<$0.01 per transaction).
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