Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 100% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 110.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 90% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 1? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 1? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 75.5 in Game 1? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 80.5 in Game 1? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 85.5 in Game 1? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 90.5 in Game 1? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 95.5 in Game 1? | 90% |
| Match Winner | 51% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 100.5 in Game 1? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 105.5 in Game 1? | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 10% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Rampage | 10% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 1% |
| Any Player Rampage | 1% |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 120.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 75.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 80.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 85.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
Market context
Team Spirit faces MOUZ in a Dota 2 Group C match at the Esports World Cup, scheduled for 10:00 AM ET on 7 July 2026. Bookmakers already favour Team Spirit heavily, assigning them odds of 1.4 against MOUZ’s 9, reflecting their superior recent form and lower-bracket dominance seen at TI10[1][7]. This 100% crowd-implied probability for Team Spirit mirrors historical patterns where elite squads with deep tournament experience consistently outperform underdogs in early-stage group matches, especially when odds disparity exceeds six points.
Traders should monitor live score feeds and official tournament updates for any delays, forfeitures, or disqualifications that could trigger the 50-50 settlement clause if the match begins but remains incomplete[3][4]. Recent coverage confirms the match starts at 14:00 UTC in Group C, with real-time stats available on multiple platforms, making timing and platform reliability critical for execution[3]. The market’s traction ties directly to funding flows: as deposit friction lowers via Klarna and SEPA rails, and withdrawal rails like USDC gain efficiency, book depth expands, reinforcing the current price consensus. Watch for announcements on schedule changes or team roster shifts, as these dependencies can alter outcome probabilities before settlement closes on 7 July 21:10 UTC.
Methodology
This page compares Dota 2: Team Spirit vs MOUZ (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group C with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- Are payment details protected?
- Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.
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