Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ends in Daytime | 100% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Ends in Daytime | 0% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
Market context
The underlying event is a Dota 2 Best-of-2 match between REKONIX and PARIVISION in the Esports World Cup Group C, scheduled for 9 July 2026 at 10:00 AM ET in Paris. REKONIX has already lost their first map 0–1 against PARIVISION, putting them in a precarious position with only one map remaining to avoid elimination [1]. This live scoreline directly explains the current crowd-implied probability of 0% for REKONIX winning the match, as they must now win the second map to force a tie and potentially a 50–50 resolution, but the market resolves to PARIVISION if they win the next map outright.
Historically, teams entering a BO2 with a 0–1 deficit in Group C stages of major tournaments like the Esports World Cup rarely recover to win the series, especially when facing a side with recent momentum. PARIVISION defeated REKONIX 2–1 in the final day of DreamLeague Season 26, demonstrating a clear tactical edge [6]. Furthermore, REKONIX suffered a 2–0 loss to Vici Gaming just two days prior in the same tournament, indicating fragility under pressure [2]. These comparable cases frame the 0% probability not as an anomaly but as a rational reflection of REKONIX’s poor recent form and PARIVISION’s consistent superiority.
Traders should monitor the immediate completion of map two and any official announcements regarding match forfeiture or delay beyond the seven-day window, which would trigger a 50–50 resolution. The match depth in this book is heavily influenced by on-ramp friction; deposit flows via Klarna and SEPA rails are currently sluggish, limiting liquidity for late-position entries [7]. A catalyst to watch is the official broadcast schedule on VEENOMONDOTA, which may reveal if PARIVISION secures the win before the settlement window closes on 9 July at 20:45 UTC [8]. Any delay in payment processing or withdrawal rails could further suppress book depth, making early positions more valuable as funding flows dictate market traction.
Methodology
This page compares Dota 2: REKONIX vs PARIVISION (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group C with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
- What's the minimum deposit?
- 10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).
- Are payment details protected?
- Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.
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