Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
99% | 1% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
99% | 1% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 99% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? | 96% |
| Ends in Daytime | 91% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 91% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 86% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? | 83% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 1? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 1? | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 23% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 10% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Rampage | 10% |
| Ends in Daytime | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 10% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
Market context
Team Nemesis and Vici Gaming are set to clash in a Best-of-Two Dota 2 match within Group C of the Esports World Cup 2026 in Paris, with the contest scheduled to begin at 14:00 UTC today. Historical head-to-head data shows Vici Gaming holds a clear edge, having won two of the three previous encounters against Nemesis, while community voting currently backs Vici with an 82.9% probability of victory [1][8]. This 0% crowd-implied probability for Team Nemesis aligns with their underdog status in recent form, mirroring comparable Group Stage mismatches where historical dominance heavily skewed early market pricing before live action.
Traders should monitor the immediate start time and any pre-match roster announcements, as delays beyond seven days or cancellations trigger a 50-50 settlement rather than a standard win [3]. The market’s depth relies on seamless funding flows; friction in depositing via Klarna or withdrawing through SEPA and USDC rails can suppress liquidity, causing the 0% price to remain static even if in-game momentum shifts. Recent coverage confirms the match is live today in Paris, meaning settlement hinges on the first completed game rather than a full series if the BO2 is interrupted [2][3].
Payment infrastructure efficiency directly correlates with book depth, as traders using frictionless on-ramps like Klarna are more likely to adjust positions quickly when odds move. If Vici Gaming secures the first game, the market will likely resolve swiftly, whereas a drawn first game could introduce volatility dependent on withdrawal speed and fee structures. The settlement window closes at 20:10 UTC on 10 July 2026, ensuring resolution within the same day regardless of match duration, provided the event commences [1].
Methodology
This page compares Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Vici Gaming (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group C with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- What's the minimum deposit?
- 10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
- Are payment details protected?
- Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.
Trade Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Vici Gaming (BO2) - Esports … on Polymarket Klarna UK
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