Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 100% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 100% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 1% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 1% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 1% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 1% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 1% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 1% |
| Any Player Rampage | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 80.5 in Game 1? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 2? | 1% |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: TR (-1.5) vs Midas Club (+1.5) | 0% |
| Ends in Daytime | 0% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| Game Handicap: Midas (-1.5) vs Team Resilience (+1.5) | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 75.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
Market context
Midas Club are playing Team Resilience in a best-of-three Dota 2 group match at Games of the Future, with the market set to follow the official winner unless the series is voided by cancellation, an unresolved delay, or an incomplete match. Live listings show the fixture as Group B and already underway at 05:00 GMT, which is consistent with the market being driven by an event that has concrete start-time and settlement risk rather than pure speculation.[1][4][18]
The current 100% crowd-implied price leaves little room for payment frictions to matter unless they affect who can get in quickly enough to trade around the open. In prediction markets, depth tends to cluster where deposits are easiest and fastest to recycle, so lower-friction rails such as SEPA, card-on-ramp options like Klarna, and instant-stablecoin funding in USDC can support tighter books than slower withdrawal and settlement paths; that matters most when an event is already live and traders are reacting to map state rather than just pre-match opinions. Robinhood’s comparable market on the same fixture showed Midas Club much lower than Team Resilience earlier in the day, which is one reason a fully priced “YES” outcome should be read as the market having already absorbed the pre-start mismatch rather than reflecting certainty about the series result.[15][18]
For catalysts, the main watchpoints are whether the match is officially completed, whether any schedule change pushes it outside the seven-day settlement window, and whether tournament feeds continue to show a clean BO3 rather than a stopped or delayed series.[1][4][10] If organisers, scoreboards, or match trackers update the status, that is more important than pre-match team pages because a live or abandoned series can flip settlement from a simple winner-takes-all outcome to 50-50 under the market rules.[1][6]
Methodology
This page compares Dota 2: Midas Club vs Team Resilience (BO3) - Games of the Future Group B with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- What's the minimum deposit?
- 10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
- Are payment details protected?
- Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.
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