Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 90% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 90% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 10% |
| Any Player Rampage | 10% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5) | 0% |
| Ends in Daytime | 0% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| Ends in Daytime | 0% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
Market context
Team Liquid will face Aurora in a best-of-three Dota 2 match during The International Group Stage on 15 August 2026, with the fixture scheduled for 08:00 ET. The outcome determines advancement positioning within the tournament's group phase, where seeding and momentum carry material weight for subsequent bracket placement. Settlement occurs at 18:00 ET the same day, allowing same-day liquidity for traders who deposit via SEPA or Klarna before market close.
Comparable International group-stage matchups between established organisations and emerging regional qualifiers have historically skewed toward favourites, though volatility in Dota 2 remains high relative to other esports. Team Liquid's recent LAN performance and roster stability provide baseline reference points; Aurora's qualification path and scrim results against tier-one opposition will shape pre-match assessment. The 0% implied probability suggests either extreme confidence in Liquid's victory or minimal book depth—a signal that deposit friction or withdrawal delays (particularly for USDC settlement rails) may be constraining trader participation rather than reflecting true conviction.
Watch for official roster confirmations and any schedule amendments from The International organisers, typically announced 48–72 hours before group play. Patch changes or hero bans affecting Liquid's or Aurora's signature strategies can shift match dynamics sharply. Traders should monitor esports news outlets and team social channels for injury or stand-in announcements. If the match postpones beyond 29 August 2026 at 23:59 ET, the market resolves to 50-50; early deposit via Klarna or direct SEPA transfer ensures position liquidity if rescheduling occurs.
Methodology
This page compares Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora (BO3) - The International Group Stage with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- Can UK traders use Klarna to deposit on Polymarket?
- Polymarket does not natively accept Klarna. To fund a Polymarket account from the UK, you must first purchase USDC via a crypto exchange (Coinbase UK, Kraken) or Revolut, then transfer to a Polygon-compatible wallet. Some third-party on-ramps (MoonPay, Transak) accept UK debit cards and may support Klarna buy-now-pay-later for crypto purchases.
- What payment methods can UK users use for Polymarket?
- UK traders typically use: (1) Coinbase UK or Kraken — buy USDC with GBP debit card or bank transfer; (2) Revolut — buy crypto and send to wallet; (3) MoonPay or Transak — Visa/Mastercard UK debit card directly to USDC on Polygon. Standard GBP-to-USDC conversion fees range from 0.5–2.5%.
- How long do Polymarket withdrawals take for UK users?
- Polymarket withdrawals to your Polygon wallet are instant (on-chain). Converting USDC back to GBP via Coinbase UK or Kraken typically takes 1–3 business days for bank transfer, or near-instant for Revolut. Polygon gas fees are minimal (<$0.01 per transaction).
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