Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
82% | 18% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
82% | 18% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 82% |
| Game 2 Winner | 75% |
| Game 1 Winner | 74% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 59% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 57% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 56% |
| Game Handicap: Iron Wing (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5) | 55% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 55% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 54% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 54% |
| Ends in Daytime | 53% |
| Ends in Daytime | 52% |
| Ends in Daytime | 52% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 51% |
| Any Player Rampage | 51% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 42% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 41% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 40% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 32% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 32% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 29% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 29% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 27% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 27% |
| Any Player Rampage | 11% |
| Any Player Rampage | 8% |
Market context
Iron Wing and GamerLegion will compete in a best-of-three elimination match at The International 2026, the annual Dota 2 world championship. The fixture is scheduled for 16 August at 01:00 ET, with settlement closing at 11:00 ET the same day. Current crowd pricing implies a 75% probability that Iron Wing advance, reflecting either stronger recent form, a perceived skill advantage, or favourable seeding relative to their opponent.
Historical precedent suggests elimination-round Dota 2 matches at The International rarely cancel outright; postponements are more common when technical issues or scheduling conflicts arise, though the 14-day rescheduling window (through 30 August) provides sufficient buffer. Teams at this stage typically field their full rosters and have completed their group-phase commitments, reducing injury or availability volatility. Comparable matches between mid-tier qualifiers show crowd probabilities in the 65–80% range tend to track actual outcomes reasonably well, though upsets occur when underdog teams exploit specific draft advantages or exploit meta shifts between group play and elimination rounds.
Traders should monitor team announcements regarding roster changes or stand-ins through 15 August, as last-minute substitutions can shift match dynamics significantly. Recent patch notes and hero balance updates released before the tournament often reshape which teams' preparation translates to stage performance. Liquidity depth on this market will depend partly on deposit friction: traders using SEPA transfers or Klarna's deferred-payment rails may enter positions later than those with immediate USDC settlement, potentially creating price movement as the match approaches. Settlement occurs within hours of the final game, with withdrawal processing typically completing within one business day for established payment rails.
Methodology
This page compares Dota 2: Iron Wing vs GamerLegion (BO3) - The International Elimination Round with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- Can UK traders use Klarna to deposit on Polymarket?
- Polymarket does not natively accept Klarna. To fund a Polymarket account from the UK, you must first purchase USDC via a crypto exchange (Coinbase UK, Kraken) or Revolut, then transfer to a Polygon-compatible wallet. Some third-party on-ramps (MoonPay, Transak) accept UK debit cards and may support Klarna buy-now-pay-later for crypto purchases.
- What payment methods can UK users use for Polymarket?
- UK traders typically use: (1) Coinbase UK or Kraken — buy USDC with GBP debit card or bank transfer; (2) Revolut — buy crypto and send to wallet; (3) MoonPay or Transak — Visa/Mastercard UK debit card directly to USDC on Polygon. Standard GBP-to-USDC conversion fees range from 0.5–2.5%.
- How long do Polymarket withdrawals take for UK users?
- Polymarket withdrawals to your Polygon wallet are instant (on-chain). Converting USDC back to GBP via Coinbase UK or Kraken typically takes 1–3 business days for bank transfer, or near-instant for Revolut. Polygon gas fees are minimal (<$0.01 per transaction).
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