Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Passion Academy (-6.5) vs SINQU Rehti (+6.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Passion Academy (-3.5) vs SINQU Rehti (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: SINQU Rehti (-3.5) vs Passion Academy (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Passion Academy (-3.5) vs SINQU Rehti (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Passion Academy (-6.5) vs SINQU Rehti (+6.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Passion Academy (-9.5) vs SINQU Rehti (+9.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Passion Academy (-3.5) vs SINQU Rehti (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Passion Academy (-6.5) vs SINQU Rehti (+6.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: SINQU Rehti (-3.5) vs Passion Academy (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: PSN.A (-1.5) vs SINQU Rehti (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: SINQU Rehti (-1.5) vs Passion Academy (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
Passion Academy and SINQU Rehti are due to play a best-of-three elimination match in European Pro League Regular Season 6 Group B, so the market is really pricing which side survives a compact online bracket rather than a long-form tournament edge.[1][4][5] The crowd-implied 0% YES looks far removed from external pricing: Polymarket’s own CS2 listings show Passion Academy around 64% and SINQU Rehti around 37%, while other esports pages put SINQU Rehti ahead in user voting or model-based previews.[13][15][6][2]
For context, this is the kind of fixture where thin liquidity can exaggerate the move when fresh match information lands, especially in lower-tier online CS2 events where team sheets, server timing and broadcast confirmation often arrive close to start time.[4][5] Comparable listings also show the usual on-ramp friction matters: Robinhood’s prediction markets interface settles event payouts after resolution, while Polymarket volumes on the wider CS2 slate show some contracts with only low-thousands in turnover, which is exactly the sort of book depth that can be sensitive to deposits and withdrawal rails such as Klarna, SEPA or USDC.[16][15]
The main catalysts are simple but time-sensitive: whether the match actually starts on schedule, whether the organiser or scoreboards confirm the updated bracket state, and whether either team is forced into a delay, default or cancellation that would push the contract towards a 50-50 outcome under the market rules.[1][4][7] Because the scheduled window is narrow, any late admin note, stream listing change, or bracket correction could matter more to pricing than the teams’ broad ranking gap, with GosuGamers, VPEsports and Strafe all pointing to a BO3 loser-match setup rather than a standalone exhibition.[5][4][11]
Methodology
This page compares Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs SINQU Rehti (BO3) - European Pro League Regular Group B with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Can UK traders use Klarna to deposit on Polymarket?
- Polymarket does not natively accept Klarna. To fund a Polymarket account from the UK, you must first purchase USDC via a crypto exchange (Coinbase UK, Kraken) or Revolut, then transfer to a Polygon-compatible wallet. Some third-party on-ramps (MoonPay, Transak) accept UK debit cards and may support Klarna buy-now-pay-later for crypto purchases.
- What payment methods can UK users use for Polymarket?
- UK traders typically use: (1) Coinbase UK or Kraken — buy USDC with GBP debit card or bank transfer; (2) Revolut — buy crypto and send to wallet; (3) MoonPay or Transak — Visa/Mastercard UK debit card directly to USDC on Polygon. Standard GBP-to-USDC conversion fees range from 0.5–2.5%.
- How long do Polymarket withdrawals take for UK users?
- Polymarket withdrawals to your Polygon wallet are instant (on-chain). Converting USDC back to GBP via Coinbase UK or Kraken typically takes 1–3 business days for bank transfer, or near-instant for Revolut. Polygon gas fees are minimal (<$0.01 per transaction).
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