Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: CYBERSHOKE Esports (-6.5) vs megoshort (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: CYBERSHOKE Esports (-9.5) vs megoshort (+9.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: CS (-1.5) vs megoshort (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: CYBERSHOKE Esports (-12.5) vs megoshort (+12.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: CYBERSHOKE Esports (-6.5) vs megoshort (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: CYBERSHOKE Esports (-3.5) vs megoshort (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: CYBERSHOKE Esports (-9.5) vs megoshort (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map Handicap: MEGO (-1.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: CYBERSHOKE Esports (-6.5) vs megoshort (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: CYBERSHOKE Esports (-9.5) vs megoshort (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: CYBERSHOKE Esports (-12.5) vs megoshort (+12.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: CYBERSHOKE Esports (-3.5) vs megoshort (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
Market context
megoshort meet CYBERSHOKE Esports in a Thunderpick World Championship European Series #2 quarter-final, a best-of-three in which the winner advances and the loser exits the bracket. The crowd is pricing a 0% YES outcome, which is more consistent with a market that has already been effectively decided or is settling around an extinguished contract than with a live match price; on the competitive side, independent match pages show CYBERSHOKE as the clear pre-match favourite, with one listing putting them at 93% and another Russian preview also leaning to a CYBERSHOKE win, including a 2–0 angle.[4][3][18]
The historical read is straightforward: CYBERSHOKE beat megoshort 2–0 in their only recorded head-to-head before this event, also in a best-of-three, which gives traders a concrete precedent for the map profile and series direction.[4][9] megoshort have still shown upset capacity in this tournament, including a 2–0 over ex-MANA earlier in the same Thunderpick run, so the main question is less whether they can win maps than whether they can turn that into a full series.[13] For a payment-led market, depth is often driven by fast on-ramp methods rather than conviction alone; when deposits via Klarna, SEPA or USDC are frictionless, small retail flows can keep an esports book active even on one-sided prices, whereas slower settlement rails tend to thin participation.
The key catalyst is whether the scheduled quarter-final actually went ahead and resolved cleanly, because the contract terms send cancellation, no-contest or a delay beyond seven days to 50–50.[11] Traders should watch the tournament bracket and results pages for a confirmed finish, since the event is listed as a single-elimination BO3 and the settlement window runs to 2026-08-01T23:35:00Z.[8][11] If the match was played on schedule, the main live dependency would have been the formal publication of the series score rather than any broader news flow; if it was not, the market’s value rests more on settlement mechanics than on competitive strength.
Methodology
This page compares Counter-Strike: megoshort vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #2 Playoffs with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
- What's the minimum deposit?
- 10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
Trade Counter-Strike: megoshort vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3… on Polymarket Klarna UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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