Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map Handicap: Keyd (-1.5) vs MIBR Academy (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Keyd (-3.5) vs MIBR Academy (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Keyd (-3.5) vs MIBR Academy (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Keyd (-3.5) vs MIBR Academy (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Keyd (-9.5) vs MIBR Academy (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Keyd (-6.5) vs MIBR Academy (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Keyd (-6.5) vs MIBR Academy (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR Academy (-3.5) vs Keyd (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR Academy (-6.5) vs Keyd (+6.5) | 0% |
Market context
Keyd Stars faced MIBR Academy in a Best-of-3 Counter-Strike match at the Thunderpick World Championship 2026 South American Series #2 on 8 July 2026, with Keyd securing a decisive 2–0 victory. This result confirms the market’s 100% YES settlement, as the outcome was unambiguous and completed within the scheduled window, leaving no room for cancellation, tie, or delay scenarios that would trigger a 50–50 resolution.
Historically, similar regional qualifier matches in Counter-Strike have shown that when one team holds a clear world ranking advantage—Keyd sits at 101 while MIBR Academy lacks a comparable global listing—the probability of a clean sweep rises sharply, often exceeding 95% in crowd-implied odds. Past tournaments like the ESL South American qualifiers demonstrate that such mismatches rarely produce ties or partial completions, reinforcing the reliability of near-certain market outcomes when one side dominates early.
Traders should monitor upcoming group-stage schedules and double-elimination dependencies, as the top two teams from each group advance to playoffs, creating pressure for consistent performance. Recent coverage from GosuGamers confirms the 2–0 result and highlights the tournament’s structured progression, while no new announcements have altered the match status. The market’s traction stems directly from funding flows via Klarna and SEPA rails, which deepen book liquidity and align deposit friction with settlement certainty.
Methodology
This page compares Counter-Strike: Keyd vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship South American Series #2 Group B with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
- What's the minimum deposit?
- 10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).
- Are payment details protected?
- Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.
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