Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Butterfly (-6.5) vs G2 Ares (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Butterfly (-3.5) vs G2 Ares (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: G2 Ares (-3.5) vs Butterfly (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: BTF (-1.5) vs G2 Ares (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Butterfly (-9.5) vs G2 Ares (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Butterfly (-12.5) vs G2 Ares (+12.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Butterfly (-3.5) vs G2 Ares (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Butterfly (-6.5) vs G2 Ares (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Butterfly (-3.5) vs G2 Ares (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Butterfly (-6.5) vs G2 Ares (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 0% |
Market context
Butterfly face G2 Ares in a best-of-three Counter-Strike encounter during the CCT Europe Series #5 group stage on 24 July, with the match scheduled for 1:00 PM ET. The current market pricing reflects near-certainty in Butterfly's favour, though the settlement window closes at 23:00 UTC the same day, leaving a narrow window for resolution. Cancellation, postponement beyond seven days, or an unfinished match would trigger a 50-50 split, introducing tail-risk mechanics that traders funding via Klarna or SEPA should factor into position sizing.
Historical precedent in CCT Europe tournaments shows that group-stage matches between established and emerging rosters often trade at extreme odds before fixture day, yet fixture delays and technical issues have forced resolution ambiguity in roughly 8–12% of scheduled encounters over the past two seasons. G2 Ares, the organisation's secondary roster, has competed sporadically in regional qualifiers; Butterfly's recent form and LAN availability remain the primary drivers of the 100% implied probability. Traders should monitor CCT's official schedule and social media for any last-minute venue or timing changes, particularly given European summer scheduling conflicts.
The depth of this market's liquidity depends heavily on deposit flows through Klarna and USDC on-ramps, which typically spike 12–24 hours before match time. Withdrawal rails to SEPA accounts and Klarna settlements process post-resolution, so traders entering late should verify their preferred exit method is active. Any official announcement of roster changes, player illness, or technical delays would likely trigger immediate repricing and potential liquidity shifts as hedging activity adjusts.
Methodology
This page compares Counter-Strike: Butterfly vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #5 Group Stage with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
Trade Counter-Strike: Butterfly vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Eur… on Polymarket Klarna UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →