Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Butterfly (-3.5) vs 1WIN (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 33.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Winner | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: 1WIN (-1.5) vs Butterfly (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 1WIN (-3.5) vs Butterfly (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 1WIN (-9.5) vs Butterfly (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: 1WIN (-3.5) vs Butterfly (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Butterfly (-6.5) vs 1WIN (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Butterfly (-3.5) vs 1WIN (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 36.5 | 0% |
Market context
1WIN are facing Butterfly in a best-of-three Round of 16 match at CCT Europe Series #5 Playoffs, with the tournament bracket running from 30 July to 2 August and all playoff matches played as BO3s.[3][4] The current crowd-implied probability sits close to a coin flip at 51% YES, which is consistent with the market treating this as a fairly even contest rather than a one-sided spot.[1]
For traders, the more relevant frame is liquidity and funding flow rather than a pure skill read. Prediction-market depth on mid-tier CS2 events often tracks how easily users can move money in and out: low-friction deposits, especially via Klarna and SEPA, can bring in casual European buyers, while USDC rails can attract larger, faster-moving participants who care about settlement speed and withdrawal optionality. That matters here because a small shift in order flow can move a market that starts near 50-50, and previous CCT Europe Series #5 Butterfly results show the team has already been active in the event, including a 2–0 win over Benched gods in the group stage.[10]
The main catalysts are simple: whether the match starts on schedule, whether the bracket is updated cleanly, and whether either side fields a full line-up at the announced time. The listed start times vary across match pages, with one showing 11:00 AM and the market description pointing to 7:00 AM ET, so traders should watch official schedule confirmation and live scoreboards rather than relying on a single listing.[2][1] If the match is delayed, postponed, or abandoned, the resolution rules can push the market to 50-50, which is the key operational risk alongside the usual BO3 variance.[1]
Methodology
This page compares Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Butterfly (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #5 Playoffs with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- What's the minimum deposit?
- 10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
Trade Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Butterfly (BO3) - CCT Europe… on Polymarket Klarna UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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