US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Negotiations between Washington and Tehran over Iran's nuclear programme remain at an impasse, with no formal bilateral talks scheduled as of early 2025. The previous Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), signed in 2015, collapsed after the US withdrew in 2018. Any new agreement would need to address uranium enrichment levels, International Atomic Energy Agency inspections, and sanctions relief—issues on which both sides have hardened positions over the past six years. The 18-month window to May 2026 represents a narrow timeframe for bridging these gaps, particularly given domestic political constraints on both sides.

Historical precedent suggests nuclear diplomacy moves slowly. The original JCPOA took roughly two years of intensive multilateral talks to conclude. Comparable recent cases—the North Korea denuclearisation talks (2018–2019) and the incremental confidence-building measures in the Iran nuclear file (2013–2015)—required sustained back-channel engagement and third-party mediation. The current 20% implied probability reflects the structural difficulty of restarting talks without preliminary agreements on scope and verification mechanisms.

Key catalysts include any shift in US administration policy toward Iran, statements from the Iranian government on enrichment caps, and IAEA reports on uranium stockpile levels. Market depth will track closely with deposit flows on UK payment rails—Klarna's instalment options and SEPA transfers have historically driven retail participation in geopolitical markets with long settlement windows. Announcements of resumed talks or multilateral mediation attempts would likely trigger significant position rebalancing.

Methodology

We track US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.