What price will Bitcoin hit on May 20?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin’s price is being measured against a same-day settlement window, with the market resolving on the official reference value around 04:00 UTC on 21 May. With the crowd-implied YES chance still at 0%, the book is effectively saying the trigger level has not been treated as realistically reachable before expiry. That is consistent with recent pricing around the high-$70,000s: Robinhood’s event market showed $76,600 or above at 99¢, while exchange-style forecasts from Binance and Kraken clustered near $77,000–$77,500 for late May, suggesting traders expect range trading rather than a sharp break. The nearest comparable framing is a level-crossing market where the last few hundred dollars matter more than the broader trend; if spot holds below the relevant threshold into the close, the contract can remain compressed even in a strong tape.

For a payment-and-on-ramp themed market, the main drivers are funding flows rather than pure directional conviction. Watch whether broker and exchange deposits clear quickly enough for last-minute buying, especially through SEPA, card rails and USDC transfers, where settlement delays or fee friction can reduce late participation. Any announcement from large retail platforms about faster euro funding, cheaper card purchases, or expanded USDC on-ramp support could improve depth and tighten spreads before expiry. Recent commentary from 24/7 Wall St. highlighted Bitcoin repeatedly stalling below $80,000 and pointed to the 200-day moving average near $82,228 as the key technical barrier, while Changelly’s May forecast put a central case around $80,600 with a range down to about $77,300. That leaves this market highly sensitive to whether fresh money can arrive in time to push spot through the final few resistance levels.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.