Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| ↑ 1,950 | 100% |
| ↑ 2,250 | 0% |
| ↑ 2,200 | 0% |
| ↑ 2,150 | 0% |
| ↑ 2,100 | 0% |
| ↑ 2,050 | 0% |
| ↑ 2,000 | 0% |
| ↓ 1,900 | 0% |
| ↓ 1,850 | 0% |
| ↓ 1,800 | 0% |
| ↓ 1,750 | 0% |
| ↓ 1,700 | 0% |
| ↓ 1,650 | 0% |
| ↓ 1,600 | 0% |
Market context
Ethereum finished the July 22 window around **$1,926** per coin, with intraday prints clustered close to the $1,900–$2,000 band rather than near either extreme. That matters for reading this market because the listed crowd favourite on the exchange was the **1,900–2,000** range at 100%, while the 0% implied probability on a separate YES-style threshold suggests the book was never pricing a decisive move beyond the nearby range on settlement day.[1][2][8]
The broader framing here is less about headline price targets than about *how easily money can get into and out of the market*. ETH’s July 22 trade sat against a backdrop of ordinary spot volatility, but the depth of the market is usually driven by deposit convenience, card and bank-fee friction, and whether users can recycle proceeds quickly through on-ramps and withdrawal rails such as **Klarna, SEPA, and USDC**. When funding flows are smooth, more accounts can size up and keep orders live; when they are slow or expensive, market-making and speculative demand typically thin out. Recent price reports showed ETH opening near **$1,928.62** and easing to about **$1,918** during the morning session, which is the sort of intraday drift that often matters more to a short-dated range market than the absolute level itself.[2][3][5]
For traders, the key catalysts are any changes to payment rails, settlement times, or exchange-side fiat support that affect how fast balances can be topped up before the final observation window. Watch for announcements on **SEPA availability**, **Klarna integration**, **USDC withdrawal support**, and any platform maintenance that could delay deposits or cash-outs; those operational details can influence book depth even when spot ETH itself is moving only modestly.[8]
Methodology
This page compares What price will Ethereum hit on July 22? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
- What's the minimum deposit?
- 10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).
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