Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| ↑ 2,100 | 0% |
| ↑ 2,050 | 0% |
| ↑ 2,000 | 0% |
| ↑ 1,950 | 0% |
| ↑ 1,900 | 0% |
| ↑ 1,850 | 0% |
| ↑ 1,800 | 0% |
| ↓ 1,750 | 0% |
| ↓ 1,700 | 0% |
| ↓ 1,650 | 0% |
| ↓ 1,600 | 0% |
| ↓ 1,550 | 0% |
| ↓ 1,500 | 0% |
| ↓ 1,450 | 0% |
Market context
Ethereum's price on 13 July 2026 will settle based on the spot rate recorded at a specified exchange at a defined timestamp. The 0% implied probability reflects either extreme confidence in a specific price band or minimal trading activity; with eighteen months until settlement, liquidity constraints on niche price-point markets often suppress early positioning. Traders depositing via Klarna or SEPA rails face variable settlement times—typically 1–3 business days for fiat on-ramps—which can create friction when reacting to intraday volatility. USDC direct deposits bypass some friction but require prior stablecoin holdings, limiting the addressable market for retail participants who treat these markets as spot-price hedges.
Historical precedent suggests Ethereum price-point markets cluster around round numbers and technical levels. During 2021–2022 volatility, similar July-dated contracts saw probability spikes only within 60–90 days of expiry, when price discovery tightened and deposit friction mattered less. The current zero reading is consistent with markets where the strike lies outside consensus ranges; as 2026 approaches, funding flows through payment rails will determine whether liquidity concentrates around realistic bands or remains fragmented across multiple strikes.
Catalysts include Ethereum's Shanghai and subsequent upgrades, macroeconomic rate expectations through mid-2026, and regulatory clarity on spot ETF structures in major jurisdictions. Bloomberg and CoinDesk track protocol developments; traders should monitor staking yield trends and network activity metrics, which correlate with longer-term price discovery independent of short-term deposit friction.
Methodology
This page compares What price will Ethereum hit on July 13? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
- What's the minimum deposit?
- 10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
- Are payment details protected?
- Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.
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